Morgan Stanley Gold Price Target In 2026: Gold has begun 2026 on a historic high note, reinforcing its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset. After closing 2025 above $4,500 per ounce in international markets for the first time ever, bullion prices remain elevated despite short-term profit booking.
On January 7, 2026, spot gold was trading near $4,440 per ounce, showing mild consolidation but maintaining a strong bullish structure.
According to Morgan Stanley, the rally is far from over.
Morgan Stanleys Gold Price Target In 2026: $4,800 by Q4 2026
Morgan Stanley has projected a gold price target of $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, translating to roughly ₹3.98–4.0 lakh per ounce in Indian currency.
The investment bank believes a combination of macroeconomic factors is creating a “perfect storm” for gold prices:
- A weaker US dollar
- A potentially dovish interest-rate stance by the Federal Reserve
- Political and leadership transitions in major global economies
Technically, analysts are watching the $4,450 resistance level closely. A decisive breakout above this zone could push prices toward $4,600 per ounce in the near term.
Central Banks Fuel the Gold Rally
Aggressive gold buying by central banks remains one of the strongest pillars supporting prices. Emerging economies are steadily reducing their reliance on the US dollar and increasing gold’s share in their foreign exchange reserves.
Analysts at Bank of America, led by Michael Widmer, estimate that average gold prices in 2026 could hover around $4,538 per ounce. Tightening supply conditions and rising production costs continue to strengthen gold’s long-term outlook.
Supply Pressures Add a Strong Price Floor
While demand continues to surge, gold supply is under visible strain.
Bank of America estimates that production from 13 major North American mining companies could decline by nearly 2% in 2026, falling to 19.2 million ounces. At the same time, mining costs are expected to rise to around $1,600 per ounce, creating a solid floor for gold prices.
This imbalance between demand and supply is reinforcing gold’s bullish trajectory.
Gold Outperforms Equities in December
In December 2025, gold decisively outperformed equities as investors rotated toward safer assets amid global economic uncertainty.
According to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), net inflows into Gold ETFs surged to ₹1,16,467 crore, nearly three times higher than the previous month. This marked the highest-ever monthly investment into gold ETFs in India.
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Mining Stocks Shine in Early 2026
Elevated gold and silver prices have translated into record profitability for mining companies. With gold holding above ₹3.7 lakh per ounce, mining margins have expanded sharply.
As a result, mining stocks have emerged as top performers within the S&P 500 at the start of 2026, attracting renewed interest from global investors.
Silver: The High-Growth Metal of 2026?
Silver is also gaining momentum alongside gold. Prices have already crossed $80 per ounce in early January.
Bank of America highlights that the gold-to-silver ratio is currently around 60:1. If this ratio narrows, silver prices could potentially surge to $135–$300 per ounce, indicating significant upside potential.
Adding to the bullish case, China has introduced a new export licensing regime for silver from 2026, covering nearly 60–70% of global refined silver supply. Market experts believe this move could further tighten global supply and push prices higher.
With strong central-bank demand, tightening supply, rising mining costs, and supportive global macro trends, gold’s long-term bull market appears firmly intact. Morgan Stanley’s $4,800 target underscores growing institutional confidence that precious metals will continue to outperform traditional asset classes through 2026.
For investors seeking stability amid uncertainty, gold and silver remain among the most compelling investment themes of the year.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market investments are subject to risk. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Yogesh Kolhe is a market and business news author with a focus on the automobile sector and gold and silver price movements, offering readers practical insights into industry and market trends.
